Superforecasting

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From a leading social scientist comes a transformative exploration of the habits that enhance predictive abilities. Everyone can benefit from improved foresight, whether in investing, policy-making, or everyday planning. Yet, people are often poor at forecasting. A pivotal study by Wharton professor Philip Tetlock revealed that even experts perform only slightly better than chance. However, some experts excel at predictions, prompting Tetlock to investigate why. In collaboration with Dan Gardner, he presents a comprehensive analysis of prediction, drawing from extensive research and a significant forecasting tournament known as the Good Judgment Project. This initiative involved thousands of ordinary individuals, including a filmmaker and a retired pipe installer, who successfully forecasted global events, outpacing traditional benchmarks and even intelligence analysts with classified access. These individuals are termed "superforecasters." The authors illustrate how we can learn from them by sharing stories of both successful and failed forecasts, alongside insights from prominent decision-makers. They argue that effective forecasting relies on gathering diverse evidence, thinking probabilistically, collaborating, tracking outcomes, and being open to admitting mistakes. This groundbreaking work offers practical strategies to enhance our predictive skills across various domains, positioning itself as a modern classic.