Afghanistan and Central Asia in 2015

This report assesses the interests of the most relevant state and non-state actors in Afghanistan and Central Asia in the aftermath of the 2014 Afghan presidential election. It is guided by the premise that the armed conflict in Afghanistan should be understood as being heavily intertwined with regional politics. Its purpose is to serve as an overview of the negotiation environment in Afghanistan and Central Asia. It identifies actors, interests, and relationships that are helpful to take into consideration when sequencing and orchestrating a peace process that could de-escalate the war in Afghanistan and help build a more stable and cooperative region. The majority of the report focuses on relevant actors and their network of relationships, and the conclusion details three future scenarios and a set of recommendations that could facilitate a coordinated negotiation process. Arvid Bell is a Research Associate at Peace Research Institute Frankfurt (PRIF) and a Research Fellow at the Program on Negotiation at Harvard Law School, Cambridge, MA. His research interests include U. S. and German foreign policy, emotions and human motives in international conflict, negotiation in crisis management and conflict resolution, and system effects in multi-constituency networks.