Comparison of off-grid electrification versus grid extension

Reliable and sustainable electricity supply is currently not available in many rural areas of Nigeria. An electrification planning based on geographic information systems is conducted for rural regions not sufficiently supplied with electricity, using the example of five Nigerian states: Cross River, Niger, Ogun, Plateau, and Sokoto. The focus lies on spatially resolved modeling of grid expansion, taking into account various factors such as topography, existing infrastructure, and different land uses (e. g. forests, water areas, and nature reserves). The aim is to make spatial comparisons as concrete as possible in order to achieve integrated, cost-optimized planning that can then be translated into concrete recommendations for action. The results show that the installed power generation capacities of the existing system must be increased significantly. In parallel, the installation of decentralized power supply systems is recommended, on the one hand, hybrid mini-grids based on renewable energy in growth centers and larger towns, as well as small-scale solar home systems at household level in structurally weak and sparsely populated regions. In the future, the mini-grids can be integrated into an extended power grid and provide additional power generation capacity there. Network expansion and decentralized solutions are not mutually exclusive; on the contrary, the advantages of both approaches can be used in an intelligent combination and thus counteract a dichotomous solution. Exploiting this potential can lead to greater diversification in the economic sector, away from the focus on the oil and gas industry and towards climate-friendly alternatives that also enable development in rural areas.