This paper estimates the economic vulnerability of developing countries to disruptions in global value chains due to COVID-19. Analyzing trade data from 12 countries, it finds that demand and supply shocks can reduce GDP by up to 5.4%. Southeast Asian countries, though highly integrated in GVCs, benefit from diverse suppliers, mitigating economic downturns. Sub-Saharan Africa shows less impact due to lower dependencies.
Stefan Pahl Bücher
