The Myth of Luck

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Acknowledgements -- 1. Lachesis's Lottery and the History of Luck -- The Myth of Er -- Tuche and Fortuna -- Submission to luck: lucky charms -- Rebellion against luck: Stoicism -- Denial of luck: all is fated -- Luck and gambling -- 2.Luck and Skill -- Slaying Laplace's Demon -- A probability theory of luck -- Winners and losers -- Buying hope on credit -- A skill equation? -- Problems with probability -- 3. Fragility and Control -- Invisible cities of the possible -- The garden of (logically) forking paths -- A modal theory of luck -- Transworld 2000 -- Lucky necessities -- A control theory of luck -- Séances and rubber hands -- Wimbledon 2012 -- Synchronic and diachronic luck -- 4. Moral Luck -- The Kantian puzzle -- The Egg of Columbus -- The accidental Nazi and the museum of medical oddities -- Equalizing fortune -- Privilege -- Essential origins -- 5. Knowledge and Serendipity -- Finding Meno -- Discover " forget -- The man who sold the Eiffel Tower and other skeptical threats -- The Overton Window -- Serendipity -- Divide and conquer -- 6. The Irrational Biases of Luck -- The frame shop -- Dueling vignettes -- Optimism vs. pessimism -- Sailing stones and flying witches -- Machine gambling -- Against luck -- Go luck yourself -- Notes -- Bibliography Index.