Deterrence in the Age of Thinking Machines

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The increasing use of artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous systems in military operations may significantly impact deterrence strategies and escalation dynamics during crises and conflicts. Traditionally, deterrence has relied on human judgment to dissuade adversaries from specific actions. However, as decision-making processes become increasingly automated, questions arise about the implications of machine-driven choices made at unprecedented speeds. This report explores how AI and autonomy might alter the established methods countries use to signal intentions regarding the use of force. It highlights potential areas for miscalculation, particularly concerning unintended escalation. Findings indicate that machine decision-making could inadvertently escalate situations or change deterrence dynamics due to its speed, differences from human reasoning, the eagerness of nations to deploy autonomous systems, and the ongoing advancements in these technologies. Current military planning and development have not adequately addressed the destabilizing risks associated with these innovations. Therefore, it is crucial for planners and decision-makers to proactively consider these challenges before deploying such systems in conflict scenarios.