The Confidence Trap

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Why do democracies oscillate between success and failure? The current financial crisis exemplifies this pattern, where progress often precedes setbacks. In this compelling narrative, David Runciman explores modern democracy through pivotal crises, spanning from the First World War to the 2008 economic crash. Focusing on global history, particularly the United States, the book examines how democracy has weathered various threats, including the Great Depression, the Cuban missile crisis, Watergate, and the collapse of Lehman Brothers. It also highlights the confusion arising from unexpected victories, such as the defeat of German autocracy in 1918 and communism in 1989. Runciman pays close attention to influential politicians and thinkers, including Woodrow Wilson, Nehru, Adenauer, Fukuyama, and Obama. The narrative reveals that while democracies are adept at recovering from emergencies, they struggle to prevent them. The lessons learned often breed complacency, fostering a dangerous belief that democracies can endure any crisis. This "confidence trap" risks leading to an insurmountable crisis, if it hasn't already occurred. Today, democracy faces serious challenges, including debt, the war on terror, the rise of China, and climate change. To survive, it must find a way to escape this confidence trap.