In this account of an unusual episode in the Cold War, Audrey Kurth Cronin examines the negotiations over Austria and the Soviet Union's sudden and surprising decision to withdraw its troops and accept the country as a neutral Western state, after having rejected any settlement for eight years.
Never have so many possessed the means to be so lethal. The diffusion of modern technology—robotics, cyber weapons, 3-D printing, autonomous systems, and artificial intelligence—has granted ordinary individuals access to weapons of mass violence once monopolized by states. Despite efforts by governments to control this flow to individuals and non-state groups, these attempts are failing. Audrey Kurth Cronin explains that we are witnessing an intensification of an age-old trend: technological advancements combined with changes in user demographics have historically reshaped warfare. Accessible innovations in destructive force have driven new patterns of political violence, as seen with the inventions of dynamite and the AK-47, which inadvertently fueled terrorist and insurgent movements. Today, emerging technologies are transforming society and redistributing power, disrupting institutions, including armed forces. The "sharing economy" of the twenty-first century is emblematic of this shift. New "open" technologies are changing access to violence, while functions like mass mobilization and force projection, once state-controlled, are now utilized by non-state actors. Cronin emphasizes the need for strategic responses to harness the benefits of these technologies while mitigating the risks they pose to global security. As power in the form of lethal technology flows to the people, we must act wisely to ensure safety.
Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns
Every terrorist movement eventually comes to an end, often more quickly than anticipated. In the wake of 9/11 and other attacks, it's crucial to understand how these movements conclude rather than just how they begin. Recognizing the common pathways through which terrorist campaigns have been eradicated can inform strategies to expedite the decline of current threats while mitigating unnecessary fears and reactions. The author examines the demise of terrorist campaigns over the past two centuries, applying these lessons to develop a new approach against groups like al-Qaeda. Key questions addressed include the duration of terrorist campaigns, the impact of targeting leadership, the role of negotiations, and the conditions under which groups may transition to other forms of violence. Through historical examples such as the anti-tsarist Narodnaya Volya, the Provisional IRA, Peru's Shining Path, and Japan's Aum Shinrikyo, the text identifies common factors in the decline of terrorist organizations, including leadership decapitation, negotiation, repression, and internal collapse. This work stands out as a comprehensive, practical, and optimistic exploration of how terrorism can end, offering valuable insights for contemporary counterterrorism efforts.